Incorporating Climatic Extremes Using the GEV Distribution Improves SDM Range Edge Performance: The changing frequency and intensity of climatic extremes due to climate change can have sudden and adverse impacts on the distribution of species. While species distribution modelling is a vital tool in ecological applications, current approaches fail to fully capture the distribution of climatic extremes, particularly of rare events with the most disruptive potential. Especially at the edges of species’ ranges, where conditions are already less favourable, predictions might be inaccurate when these extremes are not well represented.
Predicting the responses of European grassland communities to climate and land cover change:
European grasslands are among the most species-rich ecosystems on small spatial scales. However, human-induced activities like land use and climate change pose significant threats to this diversity. To explore how climate and land cover change will affect biodiversity and community composition in grassland ecosystems, we conducted joint species distribution models (SDMs) on the extensive vegetation-plot database sPlotOpen to project distributions of 1178 grassland species across Europe under current conditions and three future scenarios. We further compared model accuracy and computational efficiency between joint SDMs (JSDMs) and stacked SDMs, especially for rare species. Our results show that: (i) grassland communities in the mountain ranges are expected to suffer high rates of species loss, while those in western, northern and eastern Europe will experience substantial turnover; (ii) scaling anomalies were observed in the predicted species richness, reflecting regional differences in the dominant drivers of assembly processes; (iii) JSDMs did not outperform stacked SDMs in predictive power but demonstrated superior efficiency in model fitting and predicting; and (iv) incorporating co-occurrence datasets improved the model performance in predicting the distribution of rare species.
Embracing Change in Conservation to Protect Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functions in a Dynamic World: The field of conservation biology is gradually integrating new perspectives to better respond to accelerating environmental change. In this article, we build on recent insights to promote a forward-looking approach that fully embraces the dynamic nature of ecosystems. Traditional conservation efforts have aimed to preserve historical conditions, but in a rapidly changing world, such static goals may no longer be viable. Instead, we advocate for strategies that guide ecological change toward desirable outcomes. We present 10 practical guidelines to support researchers, policymakers, and land managers in navigating and managing ecological change. These guidelines include acknowledging shifting species compositions, focusing on ecosystem functionality, and using proactive, science-based interventions. Together, the guidelines represent a shift away from resistance-based strategies toward proactive stewardship of ecosystem transitions. By fully acknowledging ecological change and managing it intentionally, conservation science can more effectively respond to complex environmental challenges. This perspective offers a robust foundation for enhancing ecosystem resilience and maintaining biodiversity in a rapidly evolving world.
Functional assisted migration to sustain ecosystem functions under climate change: Climate change is rapidly altering habitats, forcing many plant species to shift their distribution. However, slow dispersal rates and habitat fragmentation hinder their ability to track these changes, risking local extinctions and reduced ecosystem functioning. Current management strategies may not suffice to address these challenges. 2. We propose functional assisted migration (FAM) as a novel strategy to sustain ecosystem functionality under climate change by translocating non-native plant species capable of filling functional gaps in vulnerable ecosystems. By aligning plant communities with future climate conditions, FAM further enhances ecosystem resilience to withstand additional stressors. 3. To operationalize FAM, we outline key criteria and a data-driven workflow for species selection. Species selected for FAM should meet four key criteria: adaptation to the future climate, adaptation to edaphic conditions, the ability to fill functional gaps, and a low risk of invasiveness. The structured workflow, integrating climate analogue analyses, species distribution models, and functional trait assessments, provides a data-driven backbone for selecting non-native plant species suitable for FAM. 4. Synthesis and applications: By prioritizing ecosystem functionality and resilience, FAM offers a forward-thinking solution to one of conservation science’s most pressing challenges. FAM complements traditional conservation efforts by targeting regions where natural dispersal and conventional strategies fall short, but empirical research remains essential to validate its ecological impacts and contributions.
