The seed
The drivers
The obstacles
The transformation potential
The Őrség innovation process demonstrates that transformative change in agri-environmental policy is possible even under adverse conditions — but it is rarely linear. The process generated lasting outcomes: deepened trust between farmers and conservationists, improved participatory and digital skills, new cross-institutional alliances, and a well-tested, low-tech monitoring system ready to be reactivated when policy windows open.
At the policy level, the results-based approach could be extended beyond the Őrség to other regions and other domains — a recent national call on water management has already incorporated elements of results-based logic. At the technical level, there is potential to combine the currently low-tech field monitoring with digital tools: the Hungarian State Treasury’s Mobilgazda App — a mobile application already used by farmers for administrative tasks — could be extended to enable farmer self-monitoring of biodiversity impacts, linking everyday farm management directly to conservation outcomes. At the personal level, the mentoring-style relationship between farmers and conservationists points toward a deeper, values-based shift in how farmers relate to the land they manage.
Desired future
The desired future is a substantially more adaptive agri-environmental payment system in which results-based approaches have moved from isolated experimentation into the mainstream of agricultural policy. Participants envisioned approximately half of CAP agri-environmental payments being distributed according to achieved results, supported by a decentralised network of regional schemes. Results-based payments would complement rather than entirely replace action-based support: basic payments would continue to reduce farmers’ risks, while additional rewards would recognise measurable biodiversity outcomes.
Technology, institutional reform and cultural change reinforce one another in this future. Digital tools, AI and remote sensing are confidently combined with farmers’ local knowledge, while a generational shift brings environmentally sensitive farmers and regenerative practices increasingly to the foreground. Payments themselves reflect a different logic: rather than compensating primarily for costs or lost income, they increasingly recognise the positive public and ecological value generated by farmers.
The mature system is therefore more transparent, flexible and trust-based, enabling farmers to adapt management to changing local and climatic conditions. Biodiversity improvements are measurable at genetic, species, habitat and ecosystem levels, while reduced bureaucracy and greater flexibility can particularly benefit smaller family farms. Participants considered such a transition ambitious but potentially achievable by the mid-2030s, around the end of the next CAP planning cycle.
Potential transformative intervention mixes
The pathway towards this future combines institutional decentralisation, participatory policy design, learning, new monitoring technologies and changes in the relationship between farmers and public authorities. Excessive centralisation, fragmented regulation and recurrent redesign of payment systems need to give way to greater continuity, transparency and trust. At the same time, farmers need opportunities to move from seeing agri-environmental payments as an externally imposed obligation towards understanding them as tools through which they can actively shape environmental outcomes.
Peer learning is a particularly important part of this mix. Farm schools, field visits, mentoring and communities of practice can connect farmers with local pioneers already experimenting with regenerative agriculture, conservation and advanced monitoring. Participatory design of payment schemes can incorporate multiple forms of knowledge and increase acceptance, while landscape-level approaches can connect agriculture with water, forestry and conservation objectives.
These social interventions need to be coupled with accessible monitoring systems. Simple indicators and transparent scoring cards can help farmers understand and improve outcomes, while farmer–advisor self-monitoring can rebuild trust and strengthen learning. Mobile applications, remote sensing and, where appropriate, drone technologies can complement field observations and reduce monitoring costs. Adaptive planning allows schemes to respond to regional ecological conditions and a changing climate, while payment architectures such as minimum thresholds and bonuses can encourage progressively better biodiversity outcomes.
Training for farmers, advisors and public officials completes the mix. The transformative potential lies not in replacing people with technology, but in creating a system where technological monitoring, farmer knowledge, institutional learning, transparent incentives and long-term trust work together.