Resilience

01/01/2023 -

31/12/2029

2024 – 2025 BiodivTransform

Resilience investigates how ecosystems’ tipping points can be prevented through structural processes and spatial patterns.

Context

There is an urgent need to understand the catastrophic effects that global environmental and climate change can have on the Earth, its system components and ecosystems. One area of critical concern is the imminent high-impact and abrupt tipping of ecosystems: irreversible situations in which, for example, the shift from savanna to desert, but also the stagnation of the warm Gulf Stream, accelerates.

Spatial patterns are often referred to as harbingers of such tipping points, however, recent discoveries indicate that tipping could be evaded and even reversed in ecosystems through spatial pattern formation of vegetation.

Such a patterning appears to ensure that ecosystems can avoid tipping points and thereby creating pathways of resilience. These findings are based on mathematical analyzes of spatial models and on new observations of real ecosystems. Many undiscovered pathways of resilience through spatial pattern formation could exist for tipping-prone ecosystems. This resilience could be even enhanced by the unexplored connection between spatial pattern formation and community assembly.

Main objectives

The aim of our ERC-Synergy project, Pathways of resilience and evasion of tipping in ecosystems (RESILIENCE), is to fundamentally advance our understanding and predictions of tipping points and critical transitions in ecosystems and reveal how these can be evaded and even reversed through spatial pattern formation.

RESILIENCE will develop a new theory for emerging resilience through spatial pattern formation and link this with real tipping-prone biomes undergoing accelerating global change: savanna and tundra.

Central to our theoretical approach is the novel mathematical connection between the origin of spatial pattern formation and their emerging resilience.

Our empirical approach will include the analysis of existing and new data from in situ observations and drone and satellite-based remote sensing.

Our research aims to reveal which conditions and spatial patterns lead to the evasion and even reversal of tipping. Identifying these conditions and patterns will also expose how human interventions can prevent or reverse tipping.

Main results

The Resilience project has produced a substantial body of scientific output, reflected in numerous peer-reviewed publications and preprints spanning ecology, mathematics, and earth system science. These works explore vegetation pattern formation, ecosystem resilience, and climate tipping points across diverse environments.

Among the project’s outputs are Vegetation pattern formation and community assembly under drying climate trends by Ferré, Pavithra, Bera, Uecker, and Meron (Chaos, 2025); Litter quality outweighs climate as a driver of decomposition across the tundra biome by Haydn, Myers-Smith, Borderieux, and colleagues (2025); Two sides of the coin: Feedback-driven landscape formation results in trade-off between establishment and resilience of marram grass by Höfer, de Groot, Scanlan, and colleagues (Oecologia, 2025); and Ambiguity of early warning signals for climate tipping points by Rietkerk, Skiba, Weinans, and colleagues (Nature Climate Change, 2025).
Further contributions include Tree seed dispersal modes affect forest resilience along savanna-forest boundaries by van der Rhee, Barkema, and Staal (Environmental Research Letters, 2025); Vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland by van der Voort, Baudena, Meron, Rietkerk, and Doelman (Environmental Research Letters, 2025); and Principles for guiding future research on resilience and tipping points by Yi, Rietkerk, Anderies, Chen, Dakos, Ritchie, Rocha, Milkoreit, and Quinn (Environmental Research Letters, 2025).

Additional studies address theoretical and mathematical aspects of pattern formation and ecosystem dynamics, including Can spatial self-organisation inhibit evolutionary adaptation? by Bera, Tzuk, Bennett, Dieckmann, and Meron (Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2025); Indications of ongoing noise-tipping of a bifurcation river system by Blom, Arbós, Chowdhury, Doelman, Rietkerk, and Schielen (Geophysical Research Letters, 2024); Travelling pulses on three spatial scales in a Klausmeier-type vegetation-autotoxicity model by Carter, Doelman, Iuorio, and Veerman (Nonlinearity, 2024); and Deformations of acid-mediated invasive tumors in a model with Allee effect by Carter, Doelman, van Heister, Levy, Maini, Okey, and Yeung (arXiv, 2024).
The project’s reach also extends to coastal and ecosystem-scale dynamics, as seen in A global analysis of how human infrastructure squeezes sandy coasts by Lansu, Reijers, Höfer, and colleagues (Nature Communications, 2024); Traveling vegetation-herbivore waves can sustain ecosystems threatened by droughts and population growth by Singha, Uecker, and Meron (arXiv, 2024); Water limitation regulates positive feedback of increased ecosystem respiration by Zhang, Yi, Destouni, and colleagues (Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2024); and Widespread forest-savanna coexistence but limited bistability at a landscape scale in Central Africa by Zwaan, Staal, te Beest, and Rietkerk (Environmental Research, accepted 2024).

For more details, please visit the project’s website.

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